fade-out of sylvatic plague in Kazakhstan

Empirical assessment of a threshold model for sylvatic plague.

Plague surveillance programmes established in Kazakhstan, Central Asia, during the previous century, have generated large plague archives that have been used to parameterize an abundance threshold model for sylvatic plague in great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) populations. Here, we assess the model using additional data from the same archives. Throughout the focus, population levels above the thre...

Plague epizootic cycles in Central Asia

Infection thresholds, widely used in disease epidemiology, may operate on host abundance and, if present, on vector abundance. For wildlife populations, host and vector abundances often vary greatly across years and consequently the threshold may be crossed regularly, both up- and downward. Moreover, vector and host abundances may be interdependent, which may affect the infection dynamics. Theo...

Interspecific Comparisons of Sylvatic Plague in Prairie Dogs

Of the 3 major factors (habitat loss, poisoning, and disease) that limit abundance of prairie dogs today, sylvatic plague caused by Yersinia pestis is the 1 factor that is beyond human control. Plague epizootics frequently kill .99% of prairie dogs in infected colonies. Although epizootics of sylvatic plague occur throughout most of the range of prairie dogs in the United States and are well de...

A Search for Latent Sylvatic Plague in Calcutta

Epizootiologic Parameters for Plague in Kazakhstan

Reliable estimates are lacking of key epizootiologic parameters for plague caused by Yersinia pestis infection in its natural reservoirs. We report results of a 3-year longitudinal study of plague dynamics in populations of a maintenance host, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus), in 2 populations in Kazakhstan. Serologic results suggest a mid-summer peak in the abundance of infectious hosts and...